97 posts categorized "Market Updates and Forecasts"

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

½ Year Texas Home Sales Fall

The National Association of Realtors® latest forecast calls for improvement in existing home sales during the fourth quarter of 2008, as buyers start taking advantage of benefits provided in the recently signed Housing and Economic Recovery Act.

This forecast is certainly welcome news on the heels of the doom and gloom reports that are so prevalent these days. Let’s take a look at housing sale statistics for Texas’ major metropolitan areas for the first half of 2008 to see how our local markets have fared.

Housing Statistics January through June 2008

Soldsign_2 Austin

Number of Homes Sold:  12,072, down 19% from 2007

Homes Currently for Sale:  11,619, up 29% from 2007

Months of Inventory:  5.2, up 44% from 2007

Median Sales Price:  $189,400, up 4% from 2007

Average Sales Price:  $244,500, no change from 2007

Dallas

Number of Homes Sold:  25,291, down 16% from 2007

Homes Currently for Sale:  29,902, down 5% from 2007

Months of Inventory:  6.5, up 7% from 2007

Median Sales Price:  $159,000, down 2% from 2007

Average Sales Price:  $216,000, down 2% from 2007

Houston

Number of Homes Sold:  34,370, down 13% from 2007

Homes Currently for Sale:  40,799, up 4% from 2007

Months of Inventory:  6.5, up 12% from 2007

Median Sales Price:  $152,300, up 1% from 2007

Average Sales Price:  $206,800, up 2% from 2007

San Antonio

Number of Homes Sold:  10,188, down 17% from 2007

Homes Currently for Sale:  13,188, up 17% from 2007

Months of Inventory:  6.9, up 33% from 2007

Median Sales Price:  $150,000, up 2% from 2007

Average Sales Price:  $183,200, up 2% from 2007

Sales are down in all four major metropolitan areas, but prices have remained the same or appreciated in all areas except Dallas, which is excellent news for Texas.

Statistics provided by A&M University Real Estate Center.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update

Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update – August 1, 2008
The median single family home price in AUSTIN for the week of August 1, 2008 was $329,500. The 5448 homes have been on the market for an average of 103 days.
Inventory and days-on-market are climbing, while the Market Action Index has been flat recently. The trends point to a weakening market.

AUSTIN REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW

austin real estate

Friday, August 01, 2008

Does The Housing Recovery Act Help Texas Home Buyers

RescuePresident Bush signed into law this week The Housing and Economic Recovery Act. This is the most sweeping change to housing reform since the New Deal of 1934. It is designed to assist more Americans invest in home ownership and shore up the faltering housing and mortgage markets. Like any legislation, it comes with the good and the bad. I encourage you to write your Congressmen to see if we can get legislation to revoke some of the bad.  For example, effective October 1, 2008, FHA will increase the minimum required down payment from 3% to 3.5% for Texas home buyers. The legislation also calls for the elimination of seller down-payment assistance programs such as AmeriDream and Nehemiah by October 1, 2008.

As of July 14, 2008, upfront MIP premiums became risk-based on credit scores and the annual premium increased across the board. Instead of the original plan of making FHA loans more affordable for potential Texas home buyers; the new legislation is doing the exact opposite and makes it more expensive.

Details of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act:
Here are some key provisions of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act:

GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)

FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)
FHA Reform Chart (PDF)

Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest free loan).
First-time homebuyer tax credit chart
Frequently asked questions about the first-time homebuyer tax credit

FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.
FHA Foreclosure Rescue Chart

Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs – codifies existing FHA proposal to prohibit the use of downpayment assistance programs funded by those who have a financial interest in the sale; does not prohibit other assistance programs provided by nonprofits funded by other sources, churches, employers, or family members. This prohibition does not go into effect until October 1, 2008.
More about the seller-funded downpayment assistance provision
Tips to finding downpayment assistance programs
(PDF)

VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.

Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.

GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.

Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.

National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.

CDBG Funding – Provides $4 billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.

More about the CDBG funding provision

LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.

Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.

It remains to be seen the overall effect the Recovery Act will have on both the individual home buyer and the housing industry as a whole.

From the Experts:
“We’re going through a major financial crisis…let’s be clear: Fannie and Freddie can’t be allowed to fail. With the collapse of subprime lending, they’re now more central than ever to the housing market, and the economy as a whole.”
            – Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at Princeton and New York Times columnist, 7/14/2008

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

How will Dell Layoffs of 900 Jobs Affect Austin Real Estate?

By DeeinAustin™

A surprise announcement by Dell, Inc. earlier this week sent the Austin real estate community into shock. Dell plans to close it's North Austin manufacturing facility, cutting almost 800-900 jobs in early 2009. Globally, the company will remove up to 10% of it's workforce, about 8800 jobs, saving up to $3 billion.

Readers asked me to cover the topic. Specific questions:

Delllayoffs"How will the closing of Dell's North Austin manufacturing plant affect Austin real estate values?"

"How will the 800-900 lost jobs impact the local economy?"

"Is this an indication that Austin is set for a real estate bust?"

These are good questions, but there are no easy answers. The purpose of this article is to start dialogs and create a basis for discussion.

Austin Real Estate Stats Since the Tech Bust of 2000 

Continue reading "How will Dell Layoffs of 900 Jobs Affect Austin Real Estate?" »

Monday, March 24, 2008

Austin Real Estate Update: "Houston, We Have a Glut of Inventory"

By DeeinAustin™

Last month, I reported that home sales in North and South Austin were doing well despite a down market from last year. At that time, previously "hot" areas such as Central East Austin and the South Congress area (78704) were suffering. Those trends continued in February.

View the Slideshow for the latest Austin real estate market statistics, based on February MLS data from the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Click to Download the February Update (copywritten).

AUSTIN REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY- FEBRUARY 2008

Continue reading "Austin Real Estate Update: "Houston, We Have a Glut of Inventory"" »

Monday, March 03, 2008

Boomerang Buyers Dominate Central Austin Home Trends

By DeeinAustin™

Spring is the time of year that real estate really heats up and 2008 is no exception for Austin real estate.  What's different this year? A phenomena that I call "Boomerang" Home Buyers. Boomerang Buyers have a big effect on new construction and resale homes in Central Austin.

IS YOUR FRIEND MOVING BACK TO AUSTIN?  THEY MAY BE A BOOMERANGYoungprofessionals2_4

  • Boomerangs are 30-somethings who left Austin to pursue a career, Ivy-league or out-of-state university, or other endeavor.
  • They now have a small family or career change and want to come back.
  • They usually have 20-40% CASH to put down.
  • They like the Austin climate, friendly nature, unique atmosphere, family values, and lower cost of living.
  • They'd settled in Seattle, Chicago, Michigan, Iowa, Los Angeles, New York, and other international cities, so often have eclectic taste.

Simply put, Boomerang Buyers want to be closer to the friends, family, and city they now miss.

BOOMERANG BUYERS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL AUSTIN HOME TRENDS IN 2008

Continue reading "Boomerang Buyers Dominate Central Austin Home Trends" »

Monday, February 25, 2008

Austin Real Estate Update: North and South are HOT

by DeeinAustin™

Someone help me out here. Why do people prefer to buy when the market is "hot" i.e. a seller's market? Then, when sellers are motivated to sell quickly and at better prices, they shy away because it's a "buyer's market".

I ask because buyers now have a problem. North & South Austin real estate is hot. In fact, February has been a stellar month for the Austin real estate agents who hung in there through the slump of Fall and Winter 2007.

VIEW THE AUSTIN MARKET UPDATE SLIDESHOW BELOW OR (DOWNLOAD) 

ADVICE FOR INVESTORS AND SELLERS STUCK WITH HOMES IN PREVIOUS "HOT" AREAS

Continue reading "Austin Real Estate Update: North and South are HOT" »

Monday, January 28, 2008

Annual Market Update: Austin Real Estate Winners and Losers 2007

by DeeinAustin™

Austin real estate was poise for a Super Bowl-style win in 2007, but the year proved to be humbling after the mortgage market fumble last summer.

SEE THE  8-YEAR AUSTIN REAL ESTATE MARKET PLAY-BY-PLAY (From 1999 to 2007)

  • Austin homes sales during the first few quarters in 2007 were selling in under 30-60 days. Buyer confidence was high.
  • The Texas mortgage market tanked in June. The result: many buyers and investors who wanted loans simply could not get them.
  • Loans for new construction, land, stated-income, sub-prime borrowers and low-down payments were at a stand-still for a few months Fall '07.

Continue reading "Annual Market Update: Austin Real Estate Winners and Losers 2007" »

Monday, January 21, 2008

Dallas Stats In: View the Latest Market Update

By DeeinAustin™

Some of the local boards haven't officially released their December 2007 market statistics, but the Dallas board is out in front with their final numbers. Below is the summary for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington real estate market for December including data since 2005.

See the data charts below. They are viewed best in full screen mode.

DOWNLOAD THE PDF NOW

DECEMBER 2007 DALLAS-FORT WORTH MARKET SUMMARY

Continue reading "Dallas Stats In: View the Latest Market Update" »

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Sticker Shock! Sluggish December Smacks You in the Face

By DeeinAustin™

I wonder if anyone uses the term, "sticker shock" anymore. Sticker shock was used backed in the 80s and 90s to describe the raw, gut reaction that consumers had when they saw an extremely high price tag on a item. The term wasn't used to describe real estate, but I think you should prepare for sticker shock on December market stats.

Bite If I had to describe the face of a sticker shock victim, it would look like what you'd expect from someone who had their hand struck with a hammer or who jumped in the Alaskan waters sans speedo.

A quick peek at December stats show that it was a sour month for Texas real estate. Lack of consumer confidence, high oil prices, less investors, and the holidays caused Austin real estate sales to be down 27% from 2006. Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio didn't beat last year either.

[Wait for the resounding OUCH...]

Now that the shock is over, let's break this down.

THE TRUTH ABOUT TEXAS REAL ESTATE

Continue reading "Sticker Shock! Sluggish December Smacks You in the Face" »